ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/211800Z-221800ZFEB2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211351ZFEB2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 21FEB24 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 16.6S 60.2E, APPROXIMATELY 364 NM NORTHEAST OF ST DENIS, LA 
REUNION AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 211500) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 14P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.8S 124.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 122.7E, APPROXIMATELY 30 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ADELE ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFERRED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 211450Z DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLC WITH 
FORMATIVE LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY DEFINED CENTER. 
DEEP CONVECTION IS FLARING OVER AND JUST WEST OF THE ASSESSED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, AND IS DEVELOPING INTO A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE 
OVERCAST FEATURE. ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM BROOME, AUSTRALIA SUPPORTS 
THE FACT THAT THE LLC IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE CENTRAL 
DENSE OVERCAST AND HAS NOT YET MOVED UNDER THE CENTER, WHERE 
OVERSHOOTING TOPS REACHING -92C ARE LOCATED. A RECENT ASCAT PASS AT 
211348Z SHOWS STRONGER WINDS (20-25 KTS) NOW WRAPPING INTO THE 
CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM 
ADELE ISLAND APPROXIMATELY 30 NM FROM 14P SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS AT 
ROUGHLY 19-21 KTS IN THE AREA OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS 
ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT 
OUTFLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-19C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF 14P AS IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COAST WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 
12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN