ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
211800Z-221800ZFEB2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210151ZFEB2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210721ZFEB2024//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 21FEB24 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.8S 60.6E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, 
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 210300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 14P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.4S 125.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 124.0E, APPROXIMATELY 166 NM 
NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE BROOME RADAR DEPICT A 
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE 
BANDING AND LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. A 
210557Z ATMS 183 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING 
OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT. 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KOOLAN ISLAND (YKLC, ELEVATION 530 FT), 
APPROXIMATELY 21 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER, INDICATE EASTERLY WINDS 
SUSTAINED (10-MINUTE AVERAGE) AT 14-16 KNOTS GUSTING TO 25-30 KNOTS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, 
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES (29-30 C). 
GLOBAL MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF) INDICATE A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD 
TRACK WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE 
SYSTEM TRACKS AWAY FROM LAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF 
B (WTXS21 PGTW 210730) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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