ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZFEB2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.9S 171.1W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 170.3W, APPROXIMATELY 104 NM 
SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC) WITH ISOLATED, FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE CENTER. A 
200216Z SSMIS 91 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS NO 
DISCERNIBLE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED 
WITHIN THE NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE 
EAST AND A WEAK LOW TO THE WEST. CONSEQUENTLY, ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DRY AIR 
ENTRAINMENT IS PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. 
DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHWARD TRACK 
MOTION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT DUE TO PERSISTENT 
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.9S 173.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 174.0E, APPROXIMATELY 208 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC). A 200202Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW, 
FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK CENTER. A 200200Z AMSR2 
WINDSPEED IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE LLC IS LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF A SWATH OF 20-25 KNOT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLIES WITH WEAKER 
WINDS ELSEWHERE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH 
CONVERGENT NORTHERLY FLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, AND EXTENSIVE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. DETERMINISTIC AND 
PROBABILISTIC MODELS INDICATE A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK MOTION OVER THE 
NEXT TWO DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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