ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/191800Z-201800ZFEB2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190751ZFEB2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191352ZFEB2024//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): 
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA) :
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 19FEB24 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 25.2S 85.5E, APPROXIMATELY 1013 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS 
ISLANDS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 110 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 190900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 19FEB24 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.2S 56.1E, APPROXIMATELY 361 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, 
AND HAD TRACKED EAST- NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 191500) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 14P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.8S 128.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 127.6E, APPROXIMATELY 372 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190951Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND SHALLOW BANDING. 
REMNANTS OF 14P ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER LAND. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW (5-10KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT REMNANTS OF 14P WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD WITH POTENTIAL TO FURTHER CONSOLIDATE AS IT NEARS THE 
NORTHWEST AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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