ABPW10 PGTW 191130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/191130Z-200600ZFEB2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.9S 
171.1W, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190831Z 
METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION) OBSCURED BY PERISTENT CONVECTION 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE AFORMENTIONED ASCAT DATA SUGGESTS THE 
HIGHEST WINDSPEEDS RESIDE IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN 
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
96S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO 
MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT 
AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THOUGH GLOBAL 
DETERMINSITIC MODELS HAVE BEEN TOGGLING DEVELOPMENT FROM ONE MODEL 
RUN TO THE NEXT, GLOBAL NUMERICAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUTES TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.9S 
173.3E, APPROXIMATELY 283 NM EAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190612Z SMOS IMAGE 
DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF TURNING PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY FLARING 
CONVECTION THAT IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHERMORE, 
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 97S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY GOOD 
POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
THOUGH GLOBAL DETERMINSITIC MODELS HAVE BEEN TOGGLING DEVELOPMENT 
FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT, GLOBAL NUMERICAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUTES TO CONSOLIDATE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREAS IN PARA. 2.B.(1) AND 
PARA. 2.B.(2).//
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