ABIO10 PGTW 180330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/180330Z-181800ZFEB2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171951ZFEB2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180251ZFEB2024//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 17FEB24 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 72.3E, APPROXIMATELY 576 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO 125 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 172100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.9S 51.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 51.7E, APPROXIMATELY 397 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. INVEST 95S WILL NOT STOP UNTIL IT GETS 
ENOUGH, SHOWING GREAT STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT AS IT HAS RAPIDLY 
CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 180019Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION CONCENTRATED 
OVER AND NORTHEAST OF THE PERCEIVED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) AND FRAGMENTED BANDING MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW (5-10KT) VWS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30 C) 
SST. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT 
ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 95S AND TRACKING IT NORTHEASTWARD OVER 
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, BUT HAVE DIFFERENCES WHEN IT COMES TO SPEED OF 
THE SYSTEM AS IT FLATTENS OUT ON AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY. INTENSITY 
GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD CONSENSUS ON INVEST 95S TRACKING OVER A PATCH OF 
32C WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, WHICH WILL FUEL RAPID AND 
STEADY INTENSIFICATION BEFORE MAKING A SOUTHWARD TURN TOWARDS THE 
MASCARENE ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 
TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B 
(WTXS21 PGTW 180300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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