WTXS21 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.8S 51.5E TO 14.2S 56.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 180000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.7S 51.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.9S 51.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 51.7E, APPROXIMATELY 397 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. INVEST 95S WILL NOT STOP UNTIL IT GETS ENOUGH, 
SHOWING GREAT STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT AS IT HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND AN 180019Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION CONCENTRATED OVER AND 
NORTHEAST OF THE PERCEIVED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND 
FRAGMENTED BANDING MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE 
ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-
10KT) VWS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30 C) SST. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 95S AND TRACKING IT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 
24-36 HOURS, BUT HAVE DIFFERENCES WHEN IT COMES TO SPEED OF THE SYSTEM 
AS IT FLATTENS OUT ON AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS 
GOOD CONSENSUS ON INVEST 95S TRACKING OVER A PATCH OF 32C WATER WITHIN 
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, WHICH WILL FUEL RAPID AND STEADY INTENSIFICATION 
BEFORE MAKING A SOUTHWARD TURN TOWARDS THE MASCARENE ISLANDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
190300Z.
//
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