ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/171800Z-
181800ZFEB2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170751ZFEB2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 17FEB24 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 16.2S 68.9E, APPROXIMATELY 585 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 170900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.9S 
51.8E, APPROXIMATELY 356 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 171501Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC) WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT 
HAS FRAGMENTED BANDING FORMING ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES 
OF THE SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10KT) VWS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM 
(29-30 C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL 
CONTINUE ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE 
NEXT 36-48 HOURS. AFTER NESTLING OVER A PATCH OF INVIGORATING 32C SST, 
95S WILL QUICKLY TURN EASTWARD THEN PERFORM A POSSIBLE MOONWALK AND TURN 
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE MASCARENE ISLANDS, WHILE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN