ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/151800Z-
161800ZFEB2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150321ZFEB2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.0S 64.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 64.7E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A SSMIS 151411Z 91GHZ DEPICTS SHALLOW RAIN BANDS 
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP 
CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, 
INCLUDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, AND VERY WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP 
AND INTENSIFY AS IT TURNS EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF NEAR 
EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 
150330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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