ABPW10 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/151500Z-160600ZFEB2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151421ZFEB2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150521ZFEB2024//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.6S 137.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 138.3E, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM 
NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 151238Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT SHALLOW RAIN 
BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM 
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT 93S WILL, AFTER A BRIEF QUASI-STATIONARY PERIOD, TRACK 
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS22 PGTW 151430) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.2S 166.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 166.5W, APPROXIMATELY 258 NM 
NORTHEAST OF NIUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
SHOWS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MONSOON 
TROUGH AND JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE MSI 
LOOP AND THE 150006Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOW FORMATIVE 
RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW, AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL 
GENERALLY HEAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPS21 PGTW 150530) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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