ABPW10 PGTW 150600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/150600Z-160600ZFEB2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150521ZFEB2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.6S 137.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 137.9E, APPROXIMATELY 104 NM 
NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 142031Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS A QUICKLY 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH RAIN BANDS 
BEGINNING TO WRAP IN. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (28C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURE, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (5-
10 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL GENERALLY 
HEAD SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.2S 166.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 166.5W, APPROXIMATELY 258 NM 
NORTHEAST OF NIUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
SHOWS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MONSOON 
TROUGH AND JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE MSI 
LOOP AND THE 150006Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOW FORMATIVE 
RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW, AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL 
GENERALLY HEAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 150530) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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