WTPS21 PGTW 150530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0S 166.9W TO 22.0S 160.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 150000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.1S 166.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.2S 166.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 166.5W, APPROXIMATELY 258 NM 
NORTHEAST OF NIUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI )SHOWS A 
DEVELOPING SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MONSOON TROUGH AND 
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE MSI LOOP AND THE 
150006Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOW FORMATIVE RAIN BANDS 
WRAPPING INTO THE QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, STRONG 
DUAL OUTFLOW, AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL GENERALLY HEAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
160530Z.
//
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