ABIO10 PGTW 150400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/150400Z-151800ZFEB2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150321ZFEB2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.8S 65.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 64.2E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM NORTH 
OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
PORTION OF A LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) EVIDENT IN 150134Z SSMIS IMAGERY. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), FAVORABLE 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND VERY WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL 
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TURNS 
EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE 
NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL 
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 150330) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.////
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