WTXS21 PGTW 150330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.5S 63.1E TO 16.7S 68.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 150300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.0S 64.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.8S 65.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 64.2E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM NORTH
OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF A LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) EVIDENT IN 150134Z SSMIS
IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS),
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND VERY WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 90S WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS IT TURNS EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGING TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
160330Z.//
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