ABPW10 PGTW 150130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/150130Z-150600ZFEB2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.5S 137.7W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 137.9W, APPROXIMATELY 94 NM 
NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 142031Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT FORMATIVE SHALLOW BANDS 
OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 93S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO MARGINAL VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL 
GENERALLY TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA THEN 
INTERACTING WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.9S 167.7W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 166.5W, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM 
NORTHEAST OF NIUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141707Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH RAIN BANDS BEGINNING TO WRAP IN. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, AND LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (5-10 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL GENERALLY HEAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL 
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO MEDIUM//
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