ABIO10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/141800Z-
151800ZFEB2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.6S 66.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 65.1E, APPROXIMATELY 299 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC) WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT.  ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM 
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). FURTHERMORE, A POINT SOURCE 
DIRECTLY OVER THE ANALYZED POSITION REVEALS SUPPORTIVE, ROBUST RADIAL 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL 
SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED SURFACE LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE BY TAU 72 AND RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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