ABPW10 PGTW 140600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/140600Z-150600ZFEB2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.1S 136.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 137.3E, APPROXIMATELY 419 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 132358Z GMI 
89GHZ SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMATIVE SHALLOW BANDS OF 
CONVECTION, AND A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 93S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 
MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(10-15 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL 
GENERALLY TRACK EASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, MOVING OVER THE 
SOUTHERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA. OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, NUMERICAL  
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL TURN SOUTHWARD TOWARDS LAND. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN