ABPW10 PGTW 140030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/140030Z-140600ZFEB2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.1S 135.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 136.9E, APPROXIMATELY 145 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) 
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CYCLOGENESIS WITH WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, MODERATE EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND LOW (5-10 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL 
GENERALLY TRACK EASTWARD THEN TURN SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE 
GRADUALLY DEVELOPING WITHIN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA DURING THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S 
WILL INTENSIFY NEAR WARNING CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS PRIOR TO 
POTENTIALLY MOVING BACK INLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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