ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/131800Z-
141800ZFEB2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.4S 66.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 66.1E, APPROXIMATELY 531 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A FAIRLY SMALL PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
SYSTEM. DESPITE A FAIRLY WEAK 850MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 
90S WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VWS, AND WARM (29-30 
C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL CONTINUE ON 
AN EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT TO FINALLY GET MORE 
OF A CHIMNEY EFFECT GOING IN ITS FAVOR BEYOND TAU 72, AND CONSOLIDATE 
AND STRENGTHEN MORE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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