ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/121800Z-
131800ZFEB2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.4S 
66.8E, APPROXIMATELY 492 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE SYSTEM. DESPITE A FAIRLY WEAK 850MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 90S WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-
15KT) VWS, AND WARM (29-30 C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL CONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE 
SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT TO FINALLY GET MORE OF A CHIMNEY EFFECT GOING IN 
ITS FAVOR BEYOND TAU 72, AND CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN MORE. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 14 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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