ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZFEB2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090151ZFEB2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 09FEB24 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 16.3S 165.1E, APPROXIMATELY 202NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, 
VANUATU, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS33 PGTW 090300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. 
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 10P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.4S 147.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5S 145.2W, APPROXIMATELY 287 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS 
A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL 
AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A WARM CORE ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN 
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC), TYPICAL OF A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. A PREVIOUS AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE 
PASS REVEALED AN ELONGATED LLC THAT IS STILL HOLDING ON TO ROBUST 
FLARING CONVECTION DESPITE THE HIGH LEVELS OF WIND SHEAR. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL TRANSITION DEFINED 
BY A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR BEING ADVECTED OVER THE CIRCULATION, STRONG 
WESTERLIES ALOFT, AND HIGH (GREATER THAN 40KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC 10P WILL TRACK 
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A BROAD AND ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 38 TO 43 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
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