ABPW10 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/072100Z-080600ZFEB2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071951ZFEB2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071952ZFEB2024//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072021ZFEB2024//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 07FEB24 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 19.5S 151.5W, APPROXIMATELY 162 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, 
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 072100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 07FEB24 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSAI) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 17.8S 164.6W, APPROXIMATELY 312 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NIUE, AND 
HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
65 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPS32 PGTW 072100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.5S 165.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 161.0E, APPROXIMATELY 433 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1622Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING 
AND A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29C, MODERATE OUTFLOW AND LIGHT 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS) ALL POINTING POSITIVELY TOWARDS 
INTENSIFICATION. DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT 
FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, ANTICIPATING THE SYSTEM CURVING TO THE 
SOUTHWEST BY TAU 36. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS INTENSIFICATION TO 
APPROXIMATELY 30-40KTS BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE 
REF C (WTPS21 PGTW 072030) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//
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