WTPS21 PGTW 072030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0S 159.9E TO 17.5S 165.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.9S 161.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 
159.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 161.0E, APPROXIMATELY 433 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILLA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1622Z SSMIS 
91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A 
CONSOLIDATING LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29C, MODERATE OUTFLOW AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (10-15KTS) ALL POINTING POSITIVELY TOWARDS INTENSIFICATION. 
DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 36 
HOURS, ANTICIPATING THE SYSTEM CURVING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY TAU 36. 
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS INTENSIFICATION TO APPROXIMATELY 30-40KTS BY 
TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELED BY 
082030Z.
//
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