ABPW10 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/070600Z-080600ZFEB2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061951ZFEB2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070151ZFEB2024//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 06FEB24 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 17.4S 155.9W, APPROXIMATELY 361 NM WEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, AND 
HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 062100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 07FEB24 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.2S 168.7W, APPROXIMATELY 53 NM EAST OF MANUA ISLANDS, AND HAD 
TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPS32 PGTW 070300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.0S 159.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 159.2E, APPROXIMATELY 519 NM 
WEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 070341Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED 
BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
THAT 94P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PARTIAL DISAGREEMENT ON 
THE TRACK OF 94P. GFS HAS 94P TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWARD TOWARD NEW CALEDONIA, WHILE ECMWF HAS 
IT TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE TURNING 
SOUTHEASTWARD, NORTH OF NEW CALEDONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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