ABPW10 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/062100Z-070600ZFEB2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061951ZFEB2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061952ZFEB2024//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 06FEB24 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 17.4S 155.9W, APPROXIMATELY 361 NM WEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, AND 
HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 062100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 06FEB24 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 12.7S 170.5W, APPROXIMATELY 97 NM NORTH OF PAGO PAGO, AND HAD 
TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPS32 PGTW 062100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.6S 171.9W IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE 
PARA. 2.A.(2) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.0S 159.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 159.0E, APPROXIMATELY 515 NM 
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061423Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 
BROAD, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
FRAGMENTED BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 061124Z ASCAT-B 
BULLSEYE IMAGE REVEALS THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION AND 20-25 
KT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 94P IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE 
(15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PARTIAL DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK 
OF 94P. GFS HAS 94P TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWARD TOWARD NEW CALEDONIA, WHILE ECMWF HAS IT 
TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE TURNING 
SOUTHEASTWARD, NORTH OF NEW CALEDONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO WARNING 
STATUS.//
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