ABPW10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/061800Z-070600ZFEB2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060751ZFEB2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061721ZFEB2024//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 06FEB24 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 15.9S 159.4W, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM WEST OF BORA BORA, AND HAD 
TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 060900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.4S 174.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 171.9W, APPROXIMATELY 179 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061452Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH VERY SYMMETRIC DEEP 
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE 
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 98P IS 
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, 
LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98P WILL TRACK 
SOUTHEASTWARD, EAST OF AMERICAN SAMOA, OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B 
(WTPS21 PGTW 061730) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.0S 159.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 159.0E, APPROXIMATELY 515 NM 
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061423Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 
BROAD, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
FRAGMENTED BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 061124Z ASCAT-B 
BULLSEYE IMAGE REVEALS THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION AND 20-25 
KT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 94P IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE 
(15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PARTIAL DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK 
OF 94P. GFS HAS 94P TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWARD TOWARD NEW CALEDONIA, WHILE ECMWF HAS IT 
TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE TURNING 
SOUTHEASTWARD, NORTH OF NEW CALEDONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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