ABPW10 PGTW 060600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/060600Z-070600ZFEB2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060151ZFEB2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 06FEB24 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 15.6S 161.3W, APPROXIMATELY 682 NM WEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, AND 
HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 060300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.4S 160.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2S 159.7E, APPROXIMATELY 453 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 060329Z AMSR2 89H IMAGE DEPICT A SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATING, DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND 
FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH FLARING CONVECTION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 94P IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-
15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING NAVGEM, ECMWF, AND CMC ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF NEW CALEDONIA, WHILE GFS 
TRACKS IT SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 24 
TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.3S 175.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3S 175.3W, APPROXIMATELY 359 NM 
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC) WITH POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF AND WEAKLY 
WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 98P IS IN 
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE 
(15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM 
(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 98P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND NORTH OF AMERICAN 
SAMOA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. GFS HAS 98P 
INTENSIFYING TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 12 HOURS, BUT ECMWF IS 
NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE AND DOES NOT HAVE 98P ATTAINING TROPICAL 
STORM STRENGTH AT ALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
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