ABPW10 PGTW 052330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/052330Z-060600ZFEB2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051951ZFEB2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 05FEB24 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.9S 163.5W, APPROXIMATELY 816 NM WEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, AND 
HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 052100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.6S 160.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 160.3E, APPROXIMATELY 767 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, BUT WELL-DEFINED, LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE WESTERN 
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 94P IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, 
LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL TRACK 
SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE IN 
DISAGREEMENT ON INTENSIFICATION, WITH GFS HAVING 94P ATTAIN TROPICAL 
STORM STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS AND ECMWF MUCH LATER (AT AROUND TAU 96). 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.3S 
175.3W, APPROXIMATELY 359 NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLC. 
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS FORMING ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF 30-35 KNOT WESTERLIES.  
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 98P IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98P 
WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, NORTH OF AMERICAN SAMOA OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. GFS HAS 98P INTENSIFYING TO TROPICAL 
STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 12 HOURS, BUT ECMWF IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE 
AND DOESN’T HAVE 98P ATTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT ALL.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) AND 
UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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