ABPW10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/051800Z-060600ZFEB2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051351ZFEB2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 05FEB24 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
14.7S 164.9W, APPROXIMATELY 338 NM EAST OF PAGO PAGO, AND HAD TRACKED 
EASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 
PGTW 051500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.6S 
160.0E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA . 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD, BUT 
DEFINED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LINEAR FLARING 
CONVECTION ALIGNED EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CIRCULATION CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 94P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON 
INTENSIFICATION, WITH GFS HAVING 94P ATTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN 
48 HOURS AND ECMWF MUCH LATER (AROUND TAU 96). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).//
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