ABPW10 PGTW 050600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/050600Z-060600ZFEB2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050521ZFEB2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.2S 172.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 168.0W, APPROXIMATELY 177 NM EAST 
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) AND A 050109Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATED 
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION OVER ITS CENTER AND 
FORMATIVE BANDING ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING 
TOWARDS ITS CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PROVE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM 
(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE 
ON THE TRACK OF INVEST 95P CONTINUING TO FLATTEN OUT AND MAKE AN EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TURN, GENERALLY TOWARDS FRENCH POLYNESIA WITH GRADUAL 
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A 
CLEAR AGREEANCE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS ON THE SYSTEM GETTING UP TO 35 
KNOTS THEN A SPLIT AROUND TAU 60 WITH SOME SHOWING A STEEP DECLINE AND 
OTHERS INDICATING AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH 
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 050530) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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