WTPS21 PGTW 050530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.4S 168.3W TO 16.1S 161.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 050000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.5S 168.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.2S 172.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 168.0W, APPROXIMATELY 177 NM EAST 
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) AND A 050109Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATED 
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION OVER ITS CENTER AND 
FORMATIVE BANDING ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING 
TOWARDS ITS CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PROVE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM 
(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE 
ON THE TRACK OF INVEST 95P CONTINUING TO FLATTEN OUT AND MAKE AN EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TURN, GENERALLY TOWARDS FRENCH POLYNESIA WITH GRADUAL 
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A 
CLEAR AGREEANCE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS ON THE SYSTEM GETTING UP TO 35 
KNOTS THEN A SPLIT AROUND TAU 60 WITH SOME SHOWING A STEEP DECLINE AND 
OTHERS INDICATING AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
060530Z.//
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