ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZFEB2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.8S 174.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 172.2W, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
REMAINS RATHER BROAD, IT IS CONSOLIDATING QUICKLY, PRIMARILY FOCUSED 
IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION. DEEP CONVECTION HAS 
PERSISTED OVER AND NORTH OF THE PERCEIVED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC), ENHANCED BY A LINE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A 040000Z PHASE 
CLASSIFICATION WORKSHEET SHOWED RESULTS OF INVEST 95P BEING MORE 
TROPICAL IN NATURE, WHICH IS VALIDATED BY THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL 
ANALYSIS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PROVE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT (AIDED BY A 
POINT SOURCE TO THE NORTHEAST), LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). 
GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT GFS WITH ITS USUAL 
FORWARD LEANING CALCULATIONS HAS INITIALIZED THE BEST CONCERNING 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES INVEST 
95P WILL CONTINUE ON A EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK IN THE NEAR-TERM, THEN 
QUICKLY FLATTEN OUT TO A EASTWARD TRACK, REMAINING SOUTH OF AMERICAN 
SAMOA, THEN BY TAU 24 MAKE AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TURN GENERALLY 
TOWARDS FRENCH POLYNESIA. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER 
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST OF AMERICAN SAMOA 
AND CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM 
STRUGGLING TO GET PAST 25 KNOTS WITH A PEAK OF 30KTS. THOUGH INTENSITY 
GUIDANCE DOES NOT LIKE THE SYSTEM AS MUCH, IT IS STILL A SLEEPER THAT 
SHOULD NOT BE OVER LOOKED WITH IT BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SPCZ. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS TRANSITIONED TO A 
TROPICAL SYSTEM. REFER TO PARA. 2.B.(1) FOR MORE INFORMATION.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
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