ABPW10 PGTW 010600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/010600Z-020600ZFEB2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010221ZFEB2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1)  THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 07P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.5S 139.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 139.5E, APPROXIMATELY 48 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF 
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE 
REMNANTS OF 07P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MOIST AIR IN THE AREA, AND LOW 
SURFACE PRESSURES OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND, TO THE NORTH, SHOW 
WESTERLY WINDS OF 26 KTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THE 
SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WITH A 
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE SYSTEM COULD REACH WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH 
BEFORE TRACKING BACK SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS 
PGTW 010230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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