WTPS21 PGTW 010230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (REMNANTS 07P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 140 NM RADIUS OF 17.5S 139.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 010200Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 139.5E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 07P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 17.5S 139.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 139.5E, APPROXIMATELY 48 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN 
PERIPHERIES OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
THAT THE REMNANTS OF 07P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MOIST AIR IN THE 
AREA, AND LOW SURFACE PRESSURES OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND, TO THE 
NORTH, SHOW WESTERLY WINDS OF 26 KTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AND GLOBAL MODELS 
HAVE THE SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 
HOURS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE SYSTEM COULD REACH WEAK TROPICAL 
CYCLONE STRENGTH BEFORE TRACKING BACK SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
020230Z.//
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