ABPW10 PGTW 312200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/312200ZJAN2024-010600ZFEB2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 07P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.5S 
139.7E, APPROXIMATELY 57 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTIVE 
BURSTS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE CIRCULATION 
CENTER.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE REMNANTS OF 07P IS IN 
A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MOIST AIR IN THE AREA, AND LOW SURFACE 
PRESSURES OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND, TO THE NORTH, SHOW WESTERLY 
WINDS OF 24 KTS GUSTING TO 33 KTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG 
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THE 
SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WITH A 
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE SYSTEM COULD REACH WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH 
BEFORE TRACKING BACK SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1)//
NNNN