WTXS21 PGTW 301330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.7S 64.4E TO 20.5S 66.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.8S 64.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.6S 64.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.8S 64.5E, APPROXIMATELY 81 NM 
NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE LLCC. A 
300536Z ASCAT METOP-C SCATTEROMETER PARTIAL PASS SHOWS AN OVAL SHAPED 
LLCC WITH STRONGER WINDS NOW WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 
LOW TO MODERATE VWS (15 TO 20 KNOTS), SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 
28-29C, A STRONG 850MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING 
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH CONTINUOUS DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE 
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 
33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
311330Z.
//
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