ABIO10 PGTW 291800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/291800Z-301800ZJAN2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290751ZJAN2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 29JAN24 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 23.7S 71.1E, APPROXIMATELY 798 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, 
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 130 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 290900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.0S 
64.3E, APPROXIMATELY 436 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291216Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE 
SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION AND A 
CONSOLIDATING LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK POLEWARD DIVERGENCE 
ALOFT, OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE VWS (15-20 KNOTS) AND MODERATE (29C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT 93S WILL GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS 
TOWARDS A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CYCLOGENESIS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
//
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