WTXS21 PGTW 242300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92S) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/232251ZJAN2024//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.4S 57.1E TO 25.8S 61.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 241800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.8S 57.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
20.1S 57.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.8S 57.9E, APPROXIMATELY 11 NM NORTH 
OF MAURITIUS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241409Z SSMIS 
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL DEEP CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF A 
PARTIALLY OBSCURED, ASYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO HIGH (25-30KT) VWS AND MODERATE DUAL CHANNEL 
OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY WARM (28-29C) SSTS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 
THAT 92S WILL CONTINUE DEEPENING ALONG A SOUTHEAST TRACK OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
990MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 
232300).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
252300Z.
//
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