ABIO10 PGTW 232330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/232330Z-241800ZJAN2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231951ZJAN2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/232251ZJAN2024//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 23JAN24 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 13.5S 91.5E, APPROXIMATELY 1185 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO 
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 232100) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 19.6S 58.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.1S 57.9E, APPROXIMATELY 23 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A PARTIAL 2317157Z METOP-B ASCAT DEPICT A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE STRONGEST 
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION PLACED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. A RECENT MAURITIUS OBSERVATION SHOWS A DYNAMIC DROP IN 
PRESSURE BY 7 MB IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.  WHILE A SHIP OBSERVATION TO 
SOUTHWEST IS SHOWS SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 28 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT 92S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO 
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS 
CURRENTLY PASSING MAURITIUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A 
(WTXS21 PGTW 232300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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