ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/231800Z-241800ZJAN2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230751ZJAN2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 23JAN24 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 13.0S 91.6E, APPROXIMATELY 1182 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO 
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 230900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.7S 59.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6S 58.8E, APPROXIMATELY 74 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) AND A 231155Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT SHALLOW BANDING 
AND A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE DEEP 
CONVECTION PLACED IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION 
TO THE EAST OF 92S CURRENTLY SHOWS EAST-NORTHEASTERLIES AT 18 KTS AND 
A DROP OF 2 MB IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
THAT 92S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-
20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE 
TO DEEPEN AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, PASSING 
CLOSE TO MAURITIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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