WTPS21 PGTW 222030 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90P) REISSUED// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/212021ZJAN2024// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.7S 154.5E TO 18.9S 150.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 221930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 154.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 154.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 154.1E, APPROXIMATELY 237 NM EAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING, WITH CONVECTION SPORADIC AND DISPLACED TO THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION HAS EBBED AND FLOWED DURING THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AND NOT ESPECIALLY DEEPENED DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM PERIOD. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW VIGOROUS SOUTHEASTERLIES ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE ELONGATED CONVECTIVE SHIELD BEGINNING TO MAKE THE TURN INTO THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION BUT IT WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS ALSO SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL STRUGGLING TO COCOON THE SYSTEM. A 221134Z PARTIAL ASCAT-B IMAGE CONFIRMS A LACK OF 30KT WINDFIELDS ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE WESTERN HALF MISSED. THE ABRF CAME IN A T2.0 CONFIRMING THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 90P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10 -15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90P WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND DEEPEN TO TROPICAL STROM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 212030). 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 232030Z.// NNNN