ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/221800Z-
231800ZJAN2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220751ZJAN2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 22JAN24 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 12.3S 91.5E, APPROXIMATELY 315NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AND HAD 
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 220900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.4S 64.4E HAS BEEN RE-LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 59.5E, APPROXIMATELY 243 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. THE CONVECTION WAS PREVIOUSLY SCATTERED 
WITHIN AN ELONGATED TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE WEAK VORTICITY CENTERS AND HAS 
NOW CONSOLIDATED TO A DISCERNABLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
THAT IS VISIBLE ON ANIMATED SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY.  SATELLITE 
ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS THE CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST 
LEAVING THE LLCC MOSTLY EXPOSED.  ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
LOOPS SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASING AND INSULATING THE CIRCULATION ON 
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 92S IS IN A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MODEL GUIDANCE 
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GATHER MOMENTUM AND CONTINUE DEEPENING 
AND CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, PASSING TO THE EAST OF 
MAURITIUS NEAR 240600Z.   MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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