ABPW10 PGTW 220600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/220600Z-230600ZJAN2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/212021ZJAN2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.5S 154.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 154.2E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY, A 211647Z SSMIS 89GHZ 
SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE, AND A 211155Z METOP-B SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE 
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CIRCULATION WITH CENTRALIZED DEEP CONVECTION AND 
A TROUGHING AREA EXTENDING FROM THE LLCC WESTWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30C SST), GOOD 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KT). 
GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90P WILL GENERALLY 
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE 
REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 212030) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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