WTPS21 PGTW 212030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90P) REISSUESD//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/202021ZJAN2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. //
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.2S 154.9E TO 18.2S 151.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 211800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.5S 154.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
 THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 
154.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 154.1E, APPROXIMATELY 244 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY, A 211647Z SSMIS 89GHZ 
SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE, AND A 211155Z METOP-B SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE 
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CIRCULATION WITH CENTRALIZED DEEP CONVECTION AND 
A TROUGHING AREA EXTENDING FROM THE LLCC WESTWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30C 
SST), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-
30 KT). GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90P WILL 
GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 202030).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
222030Z.//
NNNN