WTPS21 PGTW 210530 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 9OP) CORRECTED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/202021ZJAN2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 155.9E TO 15.8S 153.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.9S 154.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 154.8E 
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 154.2E, APPROXIMATELY 253 NM NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 210331Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT 
A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING 
ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, 
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM SSTS (29-30 C), OFFSET BY HIGH VWS (20-30 KT). GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90P WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AND FURTHER DEVELOP OVER 
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 
202030).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
212030Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MICROWAVE IMAGERY TIME IN PARAGRAPH 2.
//
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