ABIO10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/141800Z-151800ZJAN2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141351ZJAN2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141352ZJAN2024//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 14JAN24 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 19.8S 53.3E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, AND 
HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
105 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 141500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1)  THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.5S 93.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 94.1E, APPROXIMATELY 181 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 141151Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A DEFINED, 
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP 
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY THAT IS BEGINNING TO BUILD 
OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 98S IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, 
LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL BE QUASI-
STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 141400) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.5S 
130.0E, APPROXIMATELY 102 NM EAST OF WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140941Z SSMIS 91 GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH 
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. 
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THE CURRENT 
POSITION NEAR THE COAST AND CONFIRM A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION OVER THE  
PAST 12 HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM POINT FAWCETT, TO THE NORTH, 
INDICATE 20 TO 25 KNOT WESTERLIES WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS, 
HOWEVER, CORE WINDS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. WHILE THE SYSTEM 
IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND, IT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST AND WILL BE 
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE TRANSITION OVER WATER. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS 
ARE FAVORABLE WITH ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OVER LAND ARE HINDERING DEVELOPMENT BUT 
SURFACE PRESSURE VALUES ARE CLIMATOLOGICALLY LOW AT 997 MB. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 99S WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST OF 
AUSTRALIA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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