WTXS21 PGTW 141400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 140 NM RADIUS OF 10.8S 94.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 141330Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 94.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.5S 93.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 94.1E, APPROXIMATELY 181 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 141151Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE 
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY THAT IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 98S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT 
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
151400Z.
//
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