ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/131800Z-
141800ZJAN2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131351ZJAN2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 13JAN24 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
16.6S 54.3E, APPROXIMATELY 241 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, AND HAD 
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 131500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.0S 93.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 93.8E, APPROXIMATELY 187 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
130739Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, PARTIALLY EXPOSED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS BEGINNING 
TO FORM OVER THE CENTER, AND FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE WESTERN AND 
NORTHERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT 98S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT 
WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN