ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/121800Z-131800ZJAN2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121351ZJAN2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 12JAN24 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 13.3S 56.6E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, 
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 121500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.0S 93.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 93.1E, APPROXIMATELY 297 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
121152Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT WEAK CONVECTION TO THE 
SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN QUADRANTS, WRAPPING INTO A POORLY DEFINED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK MIDLEVEL 
TURNING. A 1215006Z METOP-B SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALS DISORGANIZED 
CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL 20-25KT WINDFIELD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN 
QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LOW (10-15KT) VWS, WARM (29-30C) 
SST, OFFSET BY WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 98S 
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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