ABIO10 PGTW 121530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/121530Z-121800ZJAN2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121351ZJAN2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 12JAN24 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 13.3S 56.6E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, 
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 121500) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.5S 92.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 93.1E, APPROXIMATELY 253 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. A 111204Z SSMIS COLOR37 NEAREST 
IMAGE LENDS A CONFIDENT LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE 
CIRCULATION EXISTS IN A DEVELOPING SEASONAL MONSOON TROUGH UNDER AN 
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AND IS BEING PROVIDED LOW LEVEL VORTICITY BY A 
STREAM OF MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLIES FLOWING OUT OF THE MIGRATORY 
ANTICYCLONES ALONG THE 30TH LATITUDE.  ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY OVER 
THE PAST 12 HOURS REVEALS CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED 
SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MODEL GUIDANCE 
INDICATES INCREASING PROBABLILITY OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG A 
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE MEDIUM RANGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.0S 57.0E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE 
PARA. 2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO 
WARNING STATUS.//
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